![]() ![]() Others point to the Russian doctrine published in June 2020 that allows for the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear power only if the very existence of the Russian state is at risk. (When, days later, Ukrainian forces liberated the city of Lyman in one of those regions, Donetsk, Russia did not escalate matters.) ![]() In September, it declared that it would use all the means at its disposal to defend the four recently annexed Ukrainian regions. Back in March, Moscow issued a threat that it would target Western arms convoys entering Ukraine from NATO countries, to very little effect. This is, in my view, a false assurance, but let’s consider the arguments.Įight months of war in Ukraine have provided plenty of examples of Moscow signaling red lines, then not following through on them. S ome people understandably prefer to believe that under no conditions would the Kremlin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and that Russian nuclear saber-rattling can be dismissed. Judging by his statements and conduct, the Russian leader appears to believe that the conflict he started has existential stakes for his country, his regime, and his rule, and that he can’t afford to lose. Putin’s move to annex Crimea in 2014 in response to revolution in Kyiv was one such decision, and it has given the peninsula a totemic significance in Russia’s war. From the start, the war in Ukraine has provided numerous examples of Putin’s emotional overreactions to events, and of his miscalculations. What makes the situation so hazardous is President Vladimir Putin’s mercurial and impulsive decision making. The latest reversal for Russia, and a significant indication of the trouble its military is having holding the territory it captured in the early weeks of its invasion, is the withdrawal from the city of Kherson, which weeks ago it had declared part of Russia. The reasons for the Pentagon’s concern were clear: Russian falsehoods about a dirty bomb could pave the way for potential nuclear use by Russia.Īmerican military leaders are worried that Moscow is embarking on a dangerous path of nuclear escalation amid the painful and humiliating setbacks that Russian forces have suffered on the battlefield in Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin jumped on the phone to his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and spoke with him twice in three days after Shoigu had claimed that Ukrainian forces planned to use a nuclear “ dirty bomb” and blame it on Moscow. officials appear to be taking the risk of an escalation involving nuclear weapons in Ukraine deadly seriously. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production.W hen, in early October, President Joe Biden remarked that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” was now at its highest since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, he faced considerable skepticism and pushback. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – .
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